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Atenuación y distribución de probabilidad de intensidades sísmicas para Colombia y el Occidente de Venezuela

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Authors

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Prieto Salazar, Jorge Alonso
Foschi, Ricardo O.
Ventura, Carlos E.
Finn, W. D. Liam
Ramo, Alfonso M.
Prada Sarmiento, L. F.
Abstract (Spanish)
Este artículo utiliza una base de datos de mapas de isosistas (artículo acompañante) para desarrollar dos aproximaciones. Primero, se generan ecuaciones de atenuación tradicionales de intensidad que relaciona variables continuas y discretas, y segunda se presenta un método alternativo de tratamiento del problema que desarrolla funciones probabilísticas conjuntas mixtas discretas-continuas que permite estimar directamente las probabilidades de ocurrencia o excedencia de diferencia de intensidades dada la distancia a un sitio y la intensidad epicentral. La distribución condicional de la distancia dado un nivel de intensidad o diferencia de intensidad es continua y se representa por una distribución lognormal. La distribución de intensidades es discreta y se representa por una función de Poisson bimodal. La representación bimodal se puede deber a reflexiones de onda en la frontera entre la litósfera y la astenósfera. Ambas aproximaciones se aplican para sismos de subducción y eventos superficiales ocurridos en Colombia y el Occidente de Venezuela
Abstract (English)
This paper uses an intensity database (parallel paper) to generate first traditional attenuation equations, and second, a model for the conditional excedeence probability of a level of seismic intensity, given distance to a site and the epicentral intensity. The latter model is comprised of mixed discrete-continuous joint probability distributions. The conditional distribution of distance for a given intensity or intensity difference is continuous and is represented by a lognormal distribution. The distribution of intensities is discrete and is represented by bi-modal Poisson functions. The bi-modal representation may be due to wave reflections at the boundary between the lithosphere and the asthenosphere, in the region. Two models are proposed, one for subduction earthquakes and the other for shallow earthquakes. The models are applied to Colombia and Western Venezuela.
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14 páginas
URI: https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/2435
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AN - Grupo de Investigación en Geotecnia
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