Publication:
Domino Effects and Industrial Risks: Integrated Probabilistic Framework – Case of Tsunamis Effects

Thumbnail Image
Files

Files

Chapter - Domino Effects and Industrial Risks Integrated Probabilistic Framework – Case of Tsunamis Effects.pdf (1.17 MB)
View Statistics
Reference Managers
Mendeley
Indexers
Google Scholar CORE
QR Code
QR Code
Authors

Authors

Mebarki, Ahmed
Jerez Barbosa, Sandra Rocio
Matasic, Igor
Prodhomme, Gaëtan
Reimeringer, Mathieu
Pensee, Vincent
Anh Vu, Quang
Willot, Adrien
Abstract (Spanish)
Este documento presenta un marco probabilístico integrado que trata los accidentes industriales y los efectos dominó que pueden producirse en una planta industrial. En el presente trabajo se detalla el caso particular de los tsunamis: modelos simplificados para las profundidades de las inundaciones y los run-ups, así como sus efectos mecánicos en los tanques industriales. El accidente inicial puede ser causado por condiciones severas de servicio en cualquiera de los tanques, ya sea bajo o a presión atmosférica, o desencadenado por un peligro natural como un terremoto, un tsunami o inundaciones extremas, por ejemplo. Este evento inicial genera, en general, un conjunto de fragmentos estructurales, una bola de fuego, una onda expansiva, así como pérdidas críticas de contención (liberación y pérdida de líquidos y gases). Las instalaciones circundantes pueden sufrir graves daños y también pueden ser una nueva fuente de accidentes y explosiones generando después una nueva secuencia de fragmentos estructurales, bola de fuego, onda expansiva y pérdida de confinamiento. Los fragmentos estructurales, la forma de la onda expansiva y las características de la bola de fuego pueden describirse a partir de la base de datos y de la información recogida en accidentes anteriores. Los tanques circundantes pueden estar bajo o a presión atmosférica, y pueden estar enterrados o no, o protegidos por barreras físicas como muros. Por lo tanto, debe investigarse la vulnerabilidad de los objetivos potenciales para evaluar el riesgo de propagación de los accidentes, ya que pueden producirse secuencias en cascada de accidentes, explosiones e incendios dentro de la planta industrial, dando lugar al efecto dominó que amenaza a cualquier planta industrial. La presente investigación describe el riesgo de ocurrencia del efecto dominó. La metodología se desarrolla de forma que pueda ser operativa y válida para cualquier planta industrial. Se supone que es válida para un conjunto de tamaños, formas y tipos de depósitos, así como para una determinada disposición geométrica en el emplazamiento industrial. La interacción y el comportamiento de los objetivos afectados o impactados por los primeros efectos de la explosión deben describirse gracias a modelos mecánicos adecuados, simplificados o sofisticados: perforación y penetración de fragmentos metálicos cuando impactan en los tanques circundantes, así como fallos globales como el vuelco, el pandeo, los efectos de flexión o cizallamiento excesivos, etc. El análisis de vulnerabilidad se detalla para el caso de los tanques bajo los efectos mecánicos generados por los tsunamis. Traducción realizada con la versión gratuita del traductor www.DeepL.com/Translator
Abstract (English)
This paper presents an integrated probabilistic framework that deals with the industrial accidents and domino effects that may occur in an industrial plant. The particular case of tsunamis is detailed in the present paper: simplified models for the inundations depths and run-ups as well as their mechanical effects on industrial tanks. The initial accident may be caused by severe service conditions in any of the tanks either under or at atmospheric pressure, or triggered by a natural hazard such as earthquake, tsunami or extreme floods for instance. This initial event generates, in general, a set of structural fragments, a fire ball, a blast wave as well as critical losses of containment (liquid and gas release and loss). The surrounding facilities may suffer serious damages and may also be a new source of accident and explosion generating afterwards a new sequence of structural fragments, fire ball, blast wave and confinement loss. The structural fragments, the blast wave form and the features of the fire ball can be described following database and feedback collected from past accidents. The surrounding tanks might be under or at atmospheric pressure, and might be buried or not, or protected by physical barriers such as walls. The vulnerability of the potential targets should therefore be investigated in order to assess the risk of propagation of the accidents since cascading sequences of accidents, explosions and fires may take place within the industrial plant, giving rise to the domino effect that threatens any industrial plant. The present research describes the risk of domino effect occurrence. The methodology is developed so that it can be operational and valid for any industrial site. It is supposed to be valid for a set of sizes, forms and kinds of tanks as well as a given geometric disposal on the industrial site. The interaction and the behavior of the targets affected or impacted by the first explosion effects should be described thanks to adequate simplified or sophisticated mechanical models: perforation and penetration of metal fragments when they impact surrounding tanks, as well as global failure such as overturning, buckling, excessive bending or shear effects, etc. The vulnerability analysis is detailed for the case of tanks under the mechanical effects generated by tsunamis.
Extent
36 páginas
Rights

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

URI: https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1819
Collections

Collections

AM - Grupo de Investigación en Estructuras y Materiales
References

Abbasi T, Abbasi SA (2007) The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE): mechanism, consequence assessment, management. J Hazard Mater 141:489–519

Abe K (1993) Estimate of tsunami heights from earthquake magnitudes. In: Proceedings of the IUGG/IOC international tsunami symposium TSUNAMI’93, Wakayama

Abe K (1995) Modeling of the runup heights of the hokkaido-nansei-Oki tsunami of 12 July 1993. Pure Appl Geophys 144(3/4):113–124

Ali SY, Li QM (2008) Critical impact energy for the perforation of metallic plates. Nucl Eng Des 238:2521–2528

Antonioni G, Spadoni G, Cozzani V (2009) Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area. J Loss Prev Process Ind 22:614–624

ARIA base of BARPI, France. www.aria.environnement.gouv.fr

ASCE (2010) Minimum design loads for buildings and other structures, ASCE/SEI standard. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, pp 7–10

Askan A, Yucemen MS (2010) Probabilistic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage: application to reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. Struct Saf 32:262–271, Elsevier

ATC (2008) Guidelines for Design of Structures for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunamis, FEMA P646. Applied Technology Council. Redwood City, California, For the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA.: 158 p

ATC (2011) Coastal Construction Manual, FEMA P-55. Applied Technology Council. Redwood City, California, For the Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA. II: 400 p

Batdorf SB (1974) A simplified method of elastic-stability analysis for thin cylindrical shells. NACA report – 874: 25 p

Beltrami GM, Di Risio M (2011) Algorithms for automatic, real-time tsunami detection in wind-wave measurements. Part I: implementation strategies and basic tests. Coast Eng 58:1062–1071, Elsevier

Børvik T, Hooperstad OS, Langseth M, Malo KA (2003) Effect of target thickness in blunt projectile penetration of Weldox 460 E steel plates. Int J Impact Eng 28:413–464

Burwell D, Tolkova E, Chawla A (2007) Diffusion and dispersion characterization of a numerical tsunami model. Ocean Model 19:10–30, Elsevier

CCH (2000) City and county of Honolulu building code. Department of Planning and Permitting of Honolulu Hawaii, Honolulu

CEN (2007) EN 1993-1-6 eurocode 3: design of steel structures, part 1.6: strength and stability of shell structures. CEN, Brussels

Chen L, Rotter M (2012) Buckling of anchored cylindrical shells of uniform thickness under wind load. Eng Struct 41:199–208

Cheung KF, Wei Y, Yamazaki Y, Yim SCS (2011) Modeling of 500-year tsunamis for probabilistic design of coastal infrastructures in the pacific northwest. Coast Eng 58:970–985, Elsevier

Constantin A (2009) On the relevance of soliton theory to tsunami modelling. Wave Motion 46:420–426, Elsevier

Corbet GG, Reid SR, Johnson W (1995) Impact loading of plates and shells by free flying projectiles: a review. J Impact Eng 18:141–230, 0734-743X(95)00023-2

Cozzani V, Salzano E (2004) The quantitative assessment of domino effects caused by overpressure- Part I: probit models. J Hazard Mater A107:67–80

Demetracopoulos AC, Hadjitheodorou C, Antonopoulos JA (1994) Statistical and numerical analysis of tsunami wave heights in confined waters. Ocean Eng 21(7):629–643, Pergamon

Eckert S, Jelinek R, Zeug G, Krausmann E (2012) Remote sensing-based assessment of tsunami vulnerability and risk in Alexandria, Egypt. Appl Geogr 32:714–723, Elsevier

Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, USA. http://www.fema.gov/photolibrary/photo_details.do?id=42405

Flouri ET, Kalligeris N, Alexandrakis G, Kampanis NA, Synolakis CE (2011) Application of a finite difference computational model to the simulation of earthquake generated tsunamis. Appl Numer Math 67:111–125. doi: 10.1016/j.apnum.2011.06.003, Elsevier

GEBCO (2012) General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans. Retrieved 15 June 2012, from www.gebco.net

Godoy LA (2007) Performance of storage tanks in oil facilities damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. J Perform Constructed Facil 21(6):441–449

Goto Y (2008) Tsunami damage to oil storage tanks. In: The 14 World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing

Goto K, Chagué-Goff C, Fujino S, Goff J, Jaffe B, Nishimura Y, Richmond B, Sugawara D, Szczucinski W, Tappin DR, Witter RC, Yulianto E (2011) New insights of tsunami hazard from the 2011 Tohoku-oki event. Mar Geol 290:46–50, Elsevier

Grasso VF, Singh A (2008) Global environmental alert service (GEAS). Adv Space Res 41:1836–1852, Elsevier

Haugen KB, Lovholt F, Harbitz CB (2005) Fundamental mechanisms for tsunami generation by submarine mass flows in idealised geometries. Mar Metroleum Geol 22:209–217, Elsevier

Heidarzadeh M, Pirooz MD, Zaker NH (2009) Modeling of the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone. Ocean Eng 36:368–376, Elsevier

Helal MA, Mehanna MS (2008) Tsunamis from nature to physics. Chaos Solitons Fractals 36:787–796, Elsevier

Holden PL (1988) Assessment of missile hazards: review of incident experience relevant to major hazard plant. Safety and reliability directorate, Health & Safety Directorate

INERIS (2011) (in French) Note de caractérisation du comportement des équipements industriels à l’inondation. Rapport d'étude DRA-. Adrien Willot et Agnès Vallée, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques

Jin D, Lin J (2011) Managing tsunamis through early warning systems: a multidisciplinary approach. Ocean Coast Manag 54:189–199, Elsevier

Kharif C, Pelinovsky E (2005) Asteroids impact tsunamis. Physique 6:361–366

Koshimura S, Namegaya Y et al (2009) Tsunami fragility – a New measure to identify tsunami damage. J Disaster Res 4(6):479–490

Lees FP (2005) Loss prevention in the process industries, 3rd edn. Butterwort Heinemann, Oxford

Leone F, Lavigne F, Paris R, Denain JC, Vinet F (2011) A spatial analysis of the December 26th, 2004 tsunami-induced damages: lessons learned for a better risk assessment integrating buildings vulnerability. Appl Geogr 31:363–375, Elsevier

Liu PLF, Wang X, Salisbury AJ (2009) Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Sea. J Asian Earth Sci 36:2–12, Elsevier

Lovholt F, Glimsdal S, Harbitz CB, Zamora N, Nadim F, Peduzzi P, Dao H, Smebye H (2011) Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale. Earth-Sci Rev, Elsevier. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.10.002

Lukkunaprasit P, Thanasisathit N et al (2009) Experimental verification of FEMA P646 tsunami loading. J Disaster Res 4(6):410–418

Madsen PA (2010) On the evolution and run-up of tsunamis. J Hydrodyn 22:1–6. doi: 10.1016/S1001-6058(09)60160-8, Elsevier

Marhavilas PK, Koulouriotis D, Gemeni V (2011) Risk analysis and assessment methodologies in the work sites : on a review, classification and comparative study of the scientific literature of the period 2000–2009. J Loss Prev Process Industries 24(5):477–523

Mebarki A, Mercier F, Nguyen QB, Ami Saada R, Meftah F, Reimeringer M (2007) A probabilistic model for the vulnerability of metal plates under the impact of cylindrical projectiles. J Loss Prev Process Industries 20:128–134

Mebarki A, Genatios C, Lafuente M (2008a) Risques Naturels et Technologiques : Aléas, Vulnérabilité et Fiabilité des Constructions – vers une formulation probabiliste intégrée. Presses Ponts et Chaussées, Paris, ISBN 978-2-85978-436-2

Mebarki A, Mercier F, Nguyen QB, Ami Saada R, Meftah F, Reimeringer M (2008b) Reliability analysis of metallic targets under metallic rods impact: towards a simplified probabilistic approach. J Loss Prev Process Industries 21:518–527

Mebarki A, Mercier F, Nguyen QB, Ami Saada R (2009a) Structural fragments and explosions in industrial facilities. Part I: probabilistic description of the source terms. J Loss Prev Process Industries 22(4):408–416. doi: 10.1016/j.jlp.2009.02.006

Mebarki A, Mercier F, Nguyen QB, Ami Saada R (2009b) Structural fragments and explosions in industrial facilities. Part II: projectile trajectory and probability of impact. J Loss Prev Process Industries 22(4):417–425, 10.1016/j.jlp.2009.02.005

Mebarki A (2009) A comparative study of different PGA attenuation and error models: case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Tectonophysics 466:300–306

Mingguang Z, Juncheng J (2008) An improved probit method for assessment of domino effect to chemical process equipment caused by overpressure. J Hazard Mater 158:280–286

Naito C, Cox D et al (2012) Fuel storage container performance during the 2011 Tohoku japan tsunami. J Perform Constr Fac, 10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000339

Nandasena NAK, Paris R, Tanaka N (2011) Reassessment of hydrodynamic equations: minimum flow velocity to initiate boulder transport by high energy events (storms, tsunamis). Mar Geol 281:70–84, Elsevier

Neilson AJ (1985) Empirical equations for the perforation of mild steel plates. J Impact Eng 3:137–142

Nishi H (2012) Damage on Hazardous Materials Facilities. In: international symposium on engineering lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, Tokyo

Nistor I, Palermo D et al (2010) Experimental and numerical modeling of tsunami loading on structures. In: International conference on coastal engineering, ASCE

Nistor I, Palermo D et al (2010b) In: Kim YC (ed) Tsunami-induced forces on structures. Handbook of coastal and ocean engineering. World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd, Singapore, pp 261–286

Norio O, Ye T, Kajitani Y, Shi P, Tatano H (2011) The 2011 Eastern Japan great earthquake disaster: overview and comments. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 2(1):34–42

Ohte S, Yoshizawa H, Chiba N, Shida S (1982) Impact strength of steel plates struck by projectiles. Bull Japan Soc Mech Eng 25:1226–1231

Palermo D, Nistor I (2008) Tsunami-induced loading on structures. Structure Magazine 3:10–13

Pophet N, Kaewbanjak N, Asavanant J, Ioualalen M (2011) High grid resolution and parallelized tsunami simulation with fully nonlinear Boussinesq equations. Comput Fluids 40:258–268, Elsevier

Reese S, Bradley BA, Bind J, Smart G, Power W, Sturman J (2011) Empirical building fragilities from observed damage in the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. Earth Sci Rev 107:156–173, Elsevier

Ruiz C, Salvatorelli-D’Angelo F, Thompson VK (1989) Elastic response of thin-wall cylindrical vessels to blast loading. Comput Fluids 32(5):1061–1072

Saatçioğlu M (2009) Performance of structures during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and tsunami induced forces for structural design. Earthquake Tsunamis 11:153–178, A. T. Tankut, Springer Netherlands

Sakakiyama T, Matsuura S et al (2009) Tsunami force acting on oil tanks and buckling analysis for tsunami pressure. J Disaster Res 4(6):427–435

Seveso Inspection Tool (2009) Réservoirs de stockage aériens atmosphériques, Deuxième version test, CRC/SIT/012-F

Sladen A, Hébert H, Schindelé F, Reymond D (2007) L’aléa tsunami en polynésie française : apports de la simulation numérique. C R Géosci 339:303–316, Elsevier

Suguino H, Iwabuchi Y et al (2008) Development of probabilistic methodology for evaluating tsunami risk on nuclear power plants. In: The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing

Talaslidis DG, Manolis GD, Paraskevopoulos E, Panagiotopoulos C, Pelekasis N (2004) The Sun website, UK: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3615721/Four-die-in-oil-refinery-explosion.html

TNO (2005a) Methods for the calculation of possible damage to people and objects resulting from releases from hazardous materials. The Green Book CPR16E

TNO (2005b) Methods for the calculations of physical effects – due to release of hazardous materials (liquids and gases). The Yellow Book CPR14E 2005

Todorovska MII, Hayir A, Trifunac MD (2002) A note on tsunami amplitudes above submarine slides and slumps. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 22:129–141, Elsevier

Tsamopoulos JA (2004) Risk analysis of industrial structures under extreme transient loads. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 24:435–448

Università degli Studi di Torino. Laboratory of Molecular Electrochemistry, Italy. http://lem.ch.unito.it/didattica/infochimica/2008_Esplosivi/Explosion.html

USGS (2011) United States Geological Survey. Retrieved 13/03/2012, 2012, from www.usgs.gov

van den Berg AC (1985) The multi-energy method, a framework for vapor cloud explosion blast prediction. J Hazard Mater 12:1–10

van Zijll de Jong SL, Dominey-Howes D, Roman CE, Calgaro E, Gero A, Veland S, Bird DK, Muliaina T, Tuiloma-Sua D, Afioga TL (2011) Process, practice and priorities – key lessons learnt undertaking sensitive social reconnaissance research as part of an (UNESCO-IOC) International Tsunami Survey Team. Earth-Sci Rev 107:174–192, Elsevier

Ward SN (2011) In: Gupta HK (ed) Tsunamis. Encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 1473–1492

Wijetunge JJ (2006) Tsunami on 26 December 2004: spatial distribution of tsunami height and the extent of inundation in Sri Lanka. Sci Tsunami Haz 24(3):225–240

Wilson RI, Dengler LA, Goltz JD, Legg MR, Miller KM, Ritchie A, Whitmore PM (2011) Emergency response and field observation activities of geoscientists in California (USA) during the September 29, 2009, Samoa Tsunami. Earth-Sci Rev 107:193–200, Elsevier

Xie M (2007) Thermodynamic and gas dynamic aspects of a BLEVE, Delft University of Technology, No.: 04–200708

Yeh H (2008) Maximum fluid forces in the tsunami runup zone. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng 132(6):496–501

Zhang DH, Yip TL, Ng CO (2009) Predicting tsunami arrivals: estimates and policy implications. Mar Policy 33:643–650, Elsevier

Zhao BB, Duan WY, Webster WC (2011) Tsunami simulation with Green-Naghdi theory. Ocean Eng 3:389–396, Elsevier