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Análisis sobre la evolución del COVID-19 en Colombia: ¿se alcanzará el pico de contagio?

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Análisis sobre la evolución del COVID-19 en Colombia ¿se alcanzará el pico de contagio.pdf (1.57 MB)
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Chaves Castro, Alvaro Hernando
Abstract (Spanish)
Se realiza un análisis de la evolución de los casos diarios de contagios y el número de muertes para Colombia y algunas ciudades con base en información oficial reportada por el Ministerio de Salud, con el fin de dar respuesta a la siguiente pregunta: ¿dada la trayectoria actual del nuevo coronavirus, es posible estimar el futuro pico de contagios? A partir de la construcción de una estructura de datos de panel, se estiman modelos con tendencia cuadrática temporal para el logaritmo del número de contagios y muertes por COVID-19. La estimación de la dinámica de los contagios y de las muertes de manera recursiva a partir del método de regresiones rolling window muestra un buen ajuste, permitiendo predecir cuándo se alcanzará el pico de la epidemia en función de los nuevos casos reportados oficialmente. Se estiman algunos factores asociados a la evolución de la pandemia, especialmente el efecto de la velocidad de contagio (tasa de reproducción efectiva, Ro) sobre la trayectoria futura de los contagios diarios. Además, se intenta estimar el impacto de las medidas de aislamiento preventivo adoptadas por las autoridades nacionales y regionales. Los resultados muestran que el pico de la pandemia en Colombia se alcanza aproximadamente a finales de agosto, período que coincide con estudios epidemiológicos más elaborados. El número promedio de nuevos casos diarios en el pico alcanzaría más de 10.000 contagios, mientras que el máximo número de fallecidos en el pico sería de 44.471. La estimación del impacto de las medidas de confinamiento muestra que se logra aplazar el pico y reducir el número de contagios y muertes.
Abstract (English)
An analysis of the evolution of daily COVID-19 cases and number of deaths in Colombia and some Colombian cities is carried using official information reported by the Ministry of Health. This seeks to answer the following question: Considering the current trajectory of the new coronavirus, is it possible to estimate the future peak of infections? From the construction of a panel data structure, some models with a time quadratic trend are estimated for the number of infections and deaths logarithm. The estimation of such dynamics by the rolling window regression method shows a good fit, allowing to estimate the approximate date for the peak of the epidemic based on the new officially reported cases. Some factors associated with the progression of the pandemic are estimated, especially the effect of the speed of contagion (effective reproduction rate, Ro) on the future trajectory of daily infections. In addition, an attempt to estimate the impact of preventive social distancing measures adopted by national and regional authorities is performed. Results show that the peak of the pandemic in Colombia will be reached approximately at the end of August; finding that agrees with more elaborate epidemiological studies. The average number of new daily cases at the peak of the pandemic in Colombia would reach more than 10,000, while the maximum number of deaths would be 44,471. Estimates about the impact of confinement measures show that it is possible to delay the peak and reduce the number of infections and deaths.
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38 Páginas
URI: https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/3395
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AG - Centro de Estudios Económicos
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