El problema del fraude en el sistema SOAT. Estudio del caso Colombiano 1988 – 2016

Abstract

El presente trabajo de investigación muestra las consecuencias que tendría el problema del fraude en la estructura del mercado SOAT, a través del análisis de diferentes escenarios posibles durante el periodo del año 2008 al 2016, en los que se supone una modificación de su estructura de mercado ante la posible salida de las compañías aseguradoras en esta industria, hasta abordar un contexto extremo en el que este seguro no existiese para la sociedad colombiana, lo que generaría grandes problemas de seguridad y salud para todas las personas que estén involucradas en un accidente de tránsito.

This research examines the consequences precipitated by the issue of fraud on the SOAT insurance system in Colombia from 2008 to 2016. The insurance market structure is analyzed by studying a range of potential scenarios from a withdrawal of the insurance companies in the industry to a complete absence of insurance policies and regulation, thus generating increasing health and safety risks for individuals involved in traffic accidents. The scenarios presented are as follows: 1. The currently established market structure composed of 13 insurance agencies. 2. A concentrated market of 7 insurance agencies due to the absence of agencies with lesser participation in the issuance of policies. 3. A unique structure in which all insurance policies are managed by a single agency. 4. A context in which there is a nullified market structure due to the complete absence of insurance policies and regulation. Additionally, this analysis is conducted using industrial, organizational indexes such as HHI, HTI, CCI among others which help determine the exposure that SOAT and its network has to elements of fraud, particularly: irregularities in indemnisations of mandatory insurance policies; the correlation between the increase of motorcycle use and the growth of fraud; the scarce diversification of insurance policy portfolios offered by insurance agencies certified to issue SOAT policies.