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Use of SPI and hydrological modelling to analyse the climate change effects on droughts: case study of the Jiet catchment in Romania
...Beltran Mora, Cindy Dayana | 2022
Drought events are a worldwide phenomenon, their impacts and consequences, however, vary based on the characteristics of the region where they occur. The main consequences derived from extreme dryness are the reduction of cropping areas and runoff, lower rates of percolation for groundwater recharge, and scarcity of water used for different purposes. To estimate present and future droughts due to climate change, analysis was done using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and a hydrological model in HEC-HMS, covering time frames between 1990-2020; 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 in the Jiet river basin, Romania. The SPI and HEC-HMS model were set up, calibrated and validated with information of physical characteristics, discharge, historical and projected meteorological data available for the catchment. SPI analysis was calculated for time scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, which represented the estimation of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. HEC-HMS model was used only to evaluate and estimate hydrological droughts. Results obtained from both analyses allowed to estimate the number of events, periods of occurrence, duration, and severity of the different types of droughts events. SPI results showed a total of 28 meteorological droughts, 14 agricultural droughts, and 7 hydrological droughts for past scenarios. For mid-century and end-century scenarios, the increment of droughts compared with past scenarios was between 10% and 17% for meteorological droughts, 71% and 100% for agricultural droughts, and for hydrological droughts the number of events where two or three times increased. Hydrological estimated droughts simulated with HEC-HMS were 9 for past scenarios, 19 for mid-century scenario and 26 for the end-century scenario. Duration and severity were also incremented for each projected scenario. Droughts have a high probability to become more common and regular on the catchment, causing impacts in different sectors based on the type of drought. The results of this research, are the first step for estimation, assessment and analysis of the events in the Jiet due to climate change in the future. Keywords: Drought, SPI, HEC-HMS, estimation, Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, drought index.
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