Publication:
Effect of Network's Morphology and Merge Bias Correction Procedures on Project Duration Mean and Variance

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Authors

Giraldo González, Germán Eduardo
Opina Hernández, Gerardo
Roldán, Fabián
Abstract (Spanish)
Muchos autores han discutido la fuente de errores en las redes PERT de la siguiente manera: Incertidumbre en la media y la varianza. cálculos de (a) duraciones de las actividades y (b) duración total del proyecto, y sus distribuciones relacionadas. Diferentes fórmulas de corrección y se propusieron procedimientos. Por otro lado, existe un riesgo de retraso relacionado con la morfología del proyecto, en términos de el número de actividades, la forma y la complejidad de la red del proyecto. Sin embargo, la relación entre la morfología de la red y La incertidumbre sobre la duración de todo el proyecto está poco estudiada. En esta investigación se utilizó un conjunto de redes de proyectos con diferentes Se generaron morfología y se utilizaron varios métodos disponibles en la literatura (incluido PERT original) para estimar la parámetros (media y varianza) de la duración total del proyecto, luego comparándolos con la simulación de Monte Carlo como un representación de la realidad y se eligieron los mejores y más precisos métodos.
Abstract (English)
Many authors have discussed the source of errors in PERT networks as follows: Uncertainty in the mean and variance calculations of (a) activity’s durations and (b) total project duration, and its related distributions. Different corrections formulas and procedures were proposed. In the other hand, there’s an existing risk of delay related to the project morphology, in terms of the number of activities, shape and complexity of the project network. However, the relationship of network’s morphology and the uncertainty of the whole project’s duration are poorly studied. In this research, a set of project networks with different morphology were generated and several methods available in literature (original PERT included) were used to estimate the parameters (mean and variance) of total project duration, then comparing them to the Monte Carlo Simulation as a representation of the reality, and the best and most accurate method(s) were chosen.
Extent
10 páginas
URI: https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/3310
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AJ - Desarrollo y Gerencia Integral de Proyectos
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