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How Likely is an Economic Depression?

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How Likely is an Economic Depression.pdf (625.48 KB)
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Sarmiento, Camilo
Abstract (Spanish)
Este artículo utiliza un proceso de panel vectorial autorregresivo (VAR) con diferentes supuestos distributivos para pronosticar la gravedad de la contracción del PIB e identificar la probabilidad de un evento umbral de depresión en los principales países de América Latina. Comparamos estos resultados con eventos hipotéticos similares para EE. UU., Reino Unido, Francia y Canadá.
Abstract (English)
This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries. We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.
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7 páginas
URI: https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/3424
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AG - Centro de Estudios Económicos
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