Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

dc.contributor.authorDuarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago
dc.contributor.authorJordi Rafael, Palacios Gonzalez
dc.contributor.authorGermán Ricardo, Santos Granados
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-14T18:47:01Z
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-01T17:30:08Z
dc.date.available2021-09-14T18:47:01Z
dc.date.available2021-10-01T17:30:08Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.isbn9783030044466
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1725
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the analysis, we employed the global climatic model MPI-ESM-MR with 22 pluviographic stations of the IDEAM and the CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), a novel downscaling model for different intervals of accumulation of precipitation (5, 7, 10, 15 and 30 days). The results predict an increase of the precipitation in the Totaré River Basin from 10% to 50% for the middle and end of the century under all RCP scenarios. It is necessary to take measures to ensure adequate agricultural production due to possible flooding or soil erosion.spa
dc.description.abstractEn este trabajo se analizan las implicaciones de diferentes escenarios de vías de concentración representativas (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 y RCP8.5) sobre la precipitación de la cuenca del río Totaré ubicada en el departamento del Tolima, Colombia, y sus posibles consecuencias sobre los sistemas productivos de la zona. En el análisis se empleó el modelo climático global MPI-ESM-MR con 22 estaciones pluviográficas del IDEAM y el CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), un novedoso modelo de downscaling para diferentes intervalos de acumulación de precipitación (5, 7, 10, 15 y 30 días). Los resultados predicen un aumento de la precipitación en la cuenca del río Totaré del 10% al 50% para mediados y finales de siglo bajo todos los escenarios RCP. Es necesario tomar medidas para garantizar una producción agrícola adecuada debido a las posibles inundaciones o a la erosión del suelo.spa
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfspa
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherEd. Springer Publishing Companyspa
dc.sourcehttps://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-04447-3_16spa
dc.titleEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenariosspa
dc.typeCapítulo - Parte de Librospa
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionspa
oaire.accessrightshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cbspa
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85spa
dc.contributor.researchgroupCentro de Estudios Hidráulicosspa
dc.publisher.placeEstados Unidosspa
dc.relation.citationendpage248spa
dc.relation.citationstartpage234spa
dc.relation.indexedN/Aspa
dc.relation.ispartofbookAdvances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change IIspa
dc.relation.referencesAngarita, H.: Methodology to include climatic variability and climate change scenarios in the WEAP model of the Magdalena River Basin macro and results of the simulations. Informe TNC, Bogotá (2014)spa
dc.relation.referencesCorporación Autonoma Regional del Tolima: Management Plan for the Totaré River Basin. CORTOLIMA (2012)spa
dc.relation.referencesDuarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): application and comparison in the Bogotá River Basin. In: La Loggia, G., Freni, G., Puleo, V., De Marchis, M. (eds.) HIC 2018. EPiC Series in Engineering, vol. 3, pp. 626–634. Palermo (2018)spa
dc.relation.referencesDuarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Evaluación Hidrológica de la Tecnica de Reducción de Escala CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling) en la Cuenca del Rio Bogotá. In: XXVIII Congreso Latinoamericano de Hidráulica e Hidrologia, Buenos Aires (2018)spa
dc.relation.referencesFernandez, M.: Agroclimatic risk assessment by sector. IDEAM (2013)spa
dc.relation.referencesGonzález-Miranda, J.: Synchronization and Control of Chaos. Imperial College Press, Barcelona (2004)spa
dc.relation.referencesKraaijenbrink, P.: Advanced Delta Change Method Extension of an application to CMIP5 GCMs. Internal report IR 2013–04, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Insitute, De Bilt (2013)spa
dc.relation.referencesRulkov, N.F., Sushchik, M.M., Tsmiring, L.S., Abarbanel, H.D.I.: Generalized synchronization of chaos in directionally coupled chaotic systems. Phys. Rev. E 51(2), 980–994 (1995)spa
dc.relation.referencesSiek, M.: Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation, Ensembles. Delft (2011)spa
dc.relation.referencesSoares, P., et al.: WRF high resolution dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim for Portugal. Clim. Dyn. 39(9–10), 2497–2522 (2012)spa
dc.relation.referencesSivakumar, B., Berndtsson, R.: Advances in Data-Based Approaches for Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting. World Scientific Publishing, Singapore (2010)spa
dc.relation.referencesVu, M., et al.: Statistical downscaling rainfall using artificial neuronal network: significantly wetter Bangkok? Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 126(3–4), 453–467 (2016)spa
dc.relation.referencesWilby, R., Dawson, C.: The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1707–1719 (2013)spa
dc.rights.accessrightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessspa
dc.subject.armarcAgricultura
dc.subject.armarcPrecipitación
dc.subject.proposalAgriculturespa
dc.subject.proposalPrecipitationspa
dc.subject.proposalGCMspa
dc.subject.proposalAgriculturaspa
dc.subject.proposalPrecipitaciónspa
dc.subject.proposalGCMspa
dc.type.coarhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248spa
dc.type.contentTextspa
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookPartspa
dc.type.redcolhttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/CAP_LIBspa


Ficheros en el ítem

Thumbnail

Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(ones)

Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem