Comportamiento de la demanda de transporte público en la pandemia COVID 19 en Colombia

Useche Chia, Duvan Farley | 2020

The health emergency caused by the coronavirus (covid-19) in Colombia and the rest of the world has forced public transportation systems to take measures to respond to social isolation. Particularly in Colombia, cities that have implemented public transportation systems such as Bogotá, Medellín and Cali have seen their investments and therefore their operation widely affected. The mobility departments of the different cities have generated a series of guidelines aimed at controlling the demand for transport. It is therefore necessary to evaluate these measures and their effects on public transport systems. The aim of this work is to apply a generalized linear model of forecasting (GLM) that allows to relate the decrees issued to mitigate the number of infections with the fall in demand for the mass transport system. The model is calibrated considering the specific measures of occupation of 35% of mass transport and uses a database whose variables represent different restrictions taken along the quarantine in the country from March 16, 2020 to day September 05, 2020. These restrictions generated a drop in demand for public transport of approximately 75% and a drop in income of about 65% according to the data obtained for the database.