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Title: Técnica de reducción de escala estadística basada en la teoría del caos: aplicación y desempeño en la Cuenca del Río Bogotá
Authors: Duarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago
Keywords: Precipitación (Química)
Sistemas Dinámicos Diferenciales
Reducción de Escala
Estadística para Ingenieros
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito
Abstract: This document introduces a new statistical downscaling method based on the concepts of deterministic chaos and synchronization of dynamical systems, as well as their application and performance in the Bogotá river basin. Two sources of climatic information were used in the process with different rainfall accumulation intervals: the first source corresponds to 47 rainfall gauge-stations of IDEAM, (1970-2016, daily) and the second is derived from the global climate model (GCM) MPI-ESM-MR with a spatial resolution of 1,875° x 1,875° at daily resolution. These time series were used to reconstruct the phase space by means of the Method of Time-Delay, which finds the appropriate values of the time delay ( τ ≈4) and the embedding dimension (m ≈ 6) to capture the attractor dynamics. This information was used to calculate the exponents of the Lyapunov spectrum and evaluate the presence of deterministic chaos. Subsequently, a predictive model is created based on the concept of general synchronization for two dynamical systems and the function of the parameter μ of the mutual false nearest neighbors method. Finally, the results of the technique are compared with other statistical downscaling methods using different measures of error (ej. RMSE). The results of this research are: The identification of an optimum accumulation interval for the prediction of the dynamical systems (5 days), the identification of the slight presence of synchronization between the dynamical systems and a suitable downscaling method for mean values.
Appears in Collections:CF - Trabajos de Grado Maestría en Ingeniería Civil

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Tesis Santiago Duarte.pdf6.28 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Anexos Tesis Santiago Duarte.pdf58.94 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Autorizacion.pdf718.06 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

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